Aluminium Prices Soar to Nearly a Four-Year High

UK aluminium futures rose to $3340 per tonne in March, reaching a four-year high, as the outbreak of the Middle East war exacerbated an already tight supply environment. Iran achieved its objectives with all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, forcing major producers to halt aluminium refining activities and risking operational suspensions that could affect 10% of global aluminium supply in the region. Qatar has stopped aluminium operations, while major facilities in the UAE and Bahrain face attacks and disruptions from assaults on energy infrastructure and power outages. Additionally, warehouses were isolated from customers as Iran attacked vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Chinese production is expected to stagnate this year, as output exceeded the 45 million tonne cap in 2025. Government resistance to expanding manufacturing capacity has limited expansion expectations, while smelters in Indonesia face difficulties building new plants due to rising energy costs and local regulatory risks.